The purported ideology of American nationalisms skillfully managed by Anglo-Saxon cultures has helped not to see the socio-economic perspective of such an impact. The independence of Latin American countries involved the greatest economic crisis and indebtedness of their coffers and thus the impoverishment of one of the richest societies of the moment, but that is something that was never assessed.
The crisis caused by the pandemic, has the prospect of generating again, in the minds of these societies the same nationalist spirit in order to silence the social realities to which they will be subjected.
The policies adopted in Latin American countries have been a true reflection of those assumed in Europe, but with certain components that have not been considered. European society has social support structures which, while highly compromised, have been able to take on a part of the social crisis component that these confinement decisions have caused. This important component is not consolidated in any of the Latin American countries, more accustomed to emulating the systems of its northern neighbor and pursuing fewer social policies. But unlike their northern neighbor, Latin American countries have a less belligerent social culture, a real inability to make decisions like their neighbor’s, and socio-economic problems they cannot take on without the help of their Western allies, either because of the interference of the United States in any of them, such as Costa Rica, or by the economic investments of European countries like Spain in others.
Nowadays, none of their natural allies have the capacity to offer this support. But the decisions taken will mean a serious economic crisis and a slowdown in emerging economies that will plunge the continent back into a deep inbred crisis from which, as always, only a few will make a profit.
Latin America has two alternatives, but its inability not to always look north limits them to one. They always have the alternative from their northern neighbor. Until the recovery of USA economy begins, the countries of the South will be waiting to see their economic indicators slowly recover again. The other alternative would be the process of Europeanization of the continent, something that its northern neighbor will never allow, and that while it would be the best alternative, the governments themselves will not launch it by considering the north as a neighbor and Europe as colonizers, which is somewhat debatable in this century.
This incorrect prospect will plunge all southern countries into a crisis that will be increased by several serious elements for them. Managing their own currencies will again generate their career in inflation, devaluations and ultimately greater indebtedness with the richest countries. The need for alternative, dollarization or euroization will lead many countries to the mistake of dollarizing, when their strengthening would be in the euroization of their economic systems, but the vision of the north prevents them from seeing other more effective alternatives.
The irretrievable fall of oil will plunge many of the countries into an identity crisis for which they now have no alternative plans and which will mean a return to the agricultural and mining commodity operating economy that does not report the same economic yields or restore 2019 GDP that they have irretrievably lost and will continue to lose in the coming months , until beyond 2025.
The lack of international investment in Europe can be offset by further meddling of the Chinese Giant in the territory, although one of the balancing components between the two blocs will be the Giant’s non-meddling on the continent. Never after all, the interventionism that the Chinese Giant can achieve will serve simply for the benefit of the same and greater economic chaos in the intervening countries, as has been seen in the African countries that assimilated China’s aid. If Europe is like an uncomfortable settler, the United States is an accepted or imposed empire and, China is a parasite for its economies that they should avoid.
If Southern Europe is one of the biggest losers of this conflict, the biggest loser of all is going to be Latin America given its inability to understand that within the continent’s economy they are the weak link and instead in the Mediterranean economy they would become the strong link.
Some of the countries will once again assume the same Monroe policy, such as Brazil, which will mean them again, the slugging of their economies and the future inability to become competitive again.
Among the countries that will see their recovery more quickly will be Mexico, being part of the productive engine of the American Giant. But the fall of oil and Trump’s policy will not allow the country to assimilate a V as a correction plot and it will take several years to recover the fall in its GDP.
While Venezuela will be one of the exchange currencies in this international policy of the greats, neighbors like Colombia and allies like Ecuador can be immersed in a bolivarization of their societies in front of the unfortunate policies of confinement of societies with such a large rate of extreme poverty. With economies more dependent on oil and the lack of modernization policies and approach of their extractive industry, they face an uncertain recovery, in which Peru and Chile can also be the latest social upheavals have begun to show.
One of the great harms, no doubt, will be Chile, an economy consolidated in the last third of the twentieth century although in the process of recession in the first two decades of this new century and that this crisis may have severed and pointed out definitively. Chile was the dynamizer of the Pacific coast, which can drag the other partners who emulated it leaving the entire region at the mercy of future agreements with China because United States left the Pacific economic alliance that was forged four years ago.
On the contrary, Argentina, which has been mired in an endless crisis from a political and economic point of view for years, could benefit from its more Europeanist policy and have become one of the first countries to take on the pandemic more professionally. It will depend a lot on your government and the decisions you end up leading, but your Europeanism could help you find a more accurate path than the rest of his neighbors.