To speak of Asia is to speak mainly of China, India and Russia. Interestingly, in the pandemic crisis, Asia has been the source of it, but at the same time the last to begin to spread massively.
While the great winner of this pandemic has been China with its internal correction of political dissent; the recovery of control of its productive economy after the acquisition of international companies and patents from all Western owners; and the only one that never stopped its productive engine, the rest of Asia is a bewilderment and the Chinese Giant’s own policy is yet to be assessed in front of all its neighbors.
Throughout the pandemic crisis equation, one of the most bewildering countries is being Russia. Its armor and silence do not allow us to assess what the future decisions of its president may be, although it is accepted by all, that their ability and determination to stay at the forefront of the countries of the world will make them make unsuspected decisions for Europe and the Middle East.
If this conflict is between the Chinese Giant and the American Giant, there is no doubt that Putin will not allow any action or détente agreement between the two that does not involve Russia and obtains his return in that contest. Let us remember that in World War II, Japan and Russia maintained excellent relations, almost alliance until the last moment where, seeing Russia being left out of the armistice negotiation, decided to declare war on it, the fruit of which gave rise to North Korea and the appropriation of some islands, among other things.
But its total hermetic makes it unaware today beyond the assumption of leadership in future international oil policy, in which other elements will be able to take a return from that crisis.
On the contrary, India, it is today, the great real doubt. Its entry into the pandemic expansion in the last place, its extreme social concentration, the predominance of a poor and marginal class that are the engine of its economy, now immersed in almost impossible confinement due to the lack of infrastructure, means and resources, makes this technological giant so dichotomy in terms of its society and economy an unknown in the face of the final repercussions and the real impact that the pandemic can have on the country. Possibly, it has been one of the last and therefore, today it is difficult to assess its future, but it will depend on its ability to control the pandemic so that we see if this Giant has the capacity to stay in those leadership positions, or all its great international development may be affected by that crisis.
India’s problems are multiplying, as its health substructure leaves civil society concentrated as one of the few countries where pandemics like tuberculosis remain a problem. The concentration of its population will cause these other health pandemics to subside with society and transform the country into the Zero Zone of new global pandemics and in the Zero Zone an unprecedented humanitarian crisis.
Obviously, Asia is much more, it is the Middle East, it is the Indochina, it is Japan, it is the Asia islands. But with the exception of Japan, the rest of the continent is a change currency that is now on the table of the Big Three and pending the decisions they make about the cause – the effect that the Chinese government has generated with this pandemic. The only truth is that none of the Big Three will lose, and that the rest are subject to the whims or trade-offs that have to be implemented, but what is certain is that big changes are coming and while the pandemic crisis is the cause, it does not depend as much on how their governments have managed it, and more on the international decisions that are determined among the Giants.
In this field, if Syria was change currency for Russia; Afghanistan can be the currency of exchange with China; but the future of Iran, North Korea, and the policy of China and U.S. about interference across Southeast Asia remains in doubt. Of course, China is going to have to accept interference or interventions from the American Giant, if elements as Taiwan are left out of such negotiation, something the American Giant itself is willing to accept.
China, in recent weeks, has begun to measure the tension that has been increasingly and exponentially upon it, and to realize that it can get out of hand, so that tension has shifted to its own diplomatic discourse, even threatening other countries like Australia, in front of the pressure it is beginning to feel for its direct responsibility in this crisis. China’s final response is unknown as it is the first time it has been on the first line of negotiation, tension and distension, and replacing Russia at the negotiating table of international balances knowing that its action has been a reason and the result of being able to sit at that table today , but at the time it is his weakness in the negotiations that loom. China’s economy has been strengthened, now it will have to strike a balance so that political benefit is also reinforced in the points that interest it most, even if it must give in to others.