Amid the chaos of the coronavirus, the financial world has found its justification for the urgent need to start the most important crisis of all history.
If previously, this company had warned of the arrival of the financial crisis, a totally different crisis that the world took into account, today we can say that the crisis is already here.
The financial crisis, as we said, has nothing to do with a family buying basket, but rather goes much higher, it is a crisis affecting global financial groups or structures. It is a crisis linked to two distinct aspects that had not been addressed till the moment.
First, we find ourselves with a dominant position of oil, at the moment when oil has long gone to the background. Oil is no longer the benchmark product of the economy, and this leads to its price being totally off the market. This value has remained high thanks to real or suggested international conflicts, and the crisis in some countries that produce it. But finally, and as it should have happened long ago, the oil value has begun to fall to its final values which will be only a third of the current value. During this year the value of oil will fall below $40, to be set for the next three years at no more than $20, which will mean the bankruptcy of many economies sustained only in this product.
Second, the impact of the disappearance of oil as an economic value. This is a problem and a setback for all world economies, as oil and its reference to the dollar was a link for the world’s most devalued currency, the dollar. While some idealist may consider the fall of the dollar to be a triumph for the rest of the world, the reality of the financial system is that in most countries, the dollar is the benchmark.
A fall in the dollar currency is a major impact on countries more antagonistic of USA such as China or Iran itself, the real custodians of some of the dollar reserves. It would be an economic crisis for economies like the European one, given the impossibility of following the devaluations of a free-falling currency such as the dollar. In short, all countries would be affected, seriously and directly, affecting the people of the countries who would encounter unemployment growth never conceivable in modern economies.
That is why, in front of the current financial crisis, external justifications help to temporarily alleviate a problem that has no easy solution. Generating new financial benchmarks and being able to consolidate the dollar as a value on them is a chimera, which is a problem that analysts are yet to determine.
Nowadays, there are two elements to be solved, such as integrating the dollar into a much stronger financial system that helps not generate a crisis as acute as leading to social and political problems such as those before World War II; and define the new Benchmark Product of the world economy. The first one may be easier to fix, the second has deeper repercussions than any analyst can intuit.