When the Sanchez government enacted the hibernation of the Spanish economy, it failed to assess the true repercussions it was calling the country. It was a short-term Humanistic decision in line with the ideological parameters of a social democracy strangled by a national communism that allows us to visualize only immediate solutions for immediate results.
But by looking at a long-term vision we face a much more complex situation where hibernation, rather than a solution, may have transformed into an aggravation of economic disease.
When I talk about the economic disease, I talk about something that already existed before the presence of the so-called pandemic. The Spanish economy was rapidly slowing down and a real one of an immediate crisis that rulers had no way of managing. A serious problem that will now blame the pandemic in all its forms, but that the only thing they have done with the pandemic has been aggravating it.
We must start from the appointment that I am not an expert in virology and its management, in order to give some peace of mind to the Humanists so that I can discredit myself in any situation that might arise here, but let us begin by assessing the impact of this pandemic, without the decision-making of Hibernation.
The pandemic, as soon as it was identified, created a very serious future problem that will lead to the greatest historical loss of our GDP, and I am talking about tourism, the economic engine since unspeakable times for many. Tourism is for Spain the most important base of the economy in all its dimensions, and not only because of the presence of it, but also because of the ability to publicize many of our products abroad, products that would otherwise have been left in the ignorance of the inhabitants of the rest of the world.
Tourism, as it existed to date, disappears by offering us values in the coming years that did not exceed 35% of historical numbers and that in the best case, in a decade would arrive with certain changes to 50%.
But to seasonal tourism we must add to other tourism that in the pre-pandemic framework was becoming worrying, such as health tourism or British pensioners, which with Brexit became one of the biggest unknowns for our country.
The lack of vision Economist and the excess concern for Humanism, has led us to keep the population concentrated rather than spread them through the second homes of the country. While, from a health point of view, we would identify it as logical in the absence of health-capable care centers in these second areas, the reality is that we have identified the world with our health inability in these areas and our low interest in supplying them with health equipment, infrastructure and services capable of serving our citizens and third parties, including in those destinations. We simply offered sun and beach tourism and there is no interest in the government to reinforce those destinations beyond that simple product. Only with greater effort and more atomized health resources, rather than their concentration, could it have expanded the pandemic to other points of the state, but at the same time, it could have prepared the entire state and not just the big cities to deal with this and future pandemic events, which were predicted for the whole century.
It has been followed by this centralist vision that both the state and communities have on their capitals, rather than trying to strengthen what they all championed, during the campaign, to help Vaciada Spain. Now would have been the time to offer that global vision of state rather than the capital centralism of all national and regional governments.
In addition, the hibernation of the economy and the halting of traffic forced the entire submerged economy, but more than existing and important for some regions, to stop their productions, causing these areas to enter a family economic crisis from which they hardly emerge and which, in turn, are not entitled to any kind of provision or economic ease of the state. This submerged economy concentrated an important capacity of our country’s industrial textile production that could have been destined to produce sanitary materials while regularizing its precarious situation.
In the field of building, people’s freedom of mobility would have allowed for the identification of future urban solutions and the bets that the housing market would have to assess in the future, in order to offer new alternatives and locations to society at large.
The exit from Hibernation, unlike the optimistic vision of the Humanists, will generate an undervalued stoppage at the moment that will lead more than 10 million jobs into a precarious or forced-to-unemployment situation; many multinationals will take advantage of the situation to transform their country presence policies and reduce their plants and staff globally, especially the automotive sector, another pillar of Spain’s economy. The stop in the purchase of automotive units, the transformation of the whole sector, and the concentration of the sector, will give multinationals the ability to permanently close the doors of plants that, in other circumstances, and for the commitments to governments, would not have been able to make. On this occasion, the legal closure of governments has justified their future decisions.
If unemployment in the 2008 crisis reached 27%, let us not be surprised that this time it can approach 50%, figures which represent a serious social problem, rather than a political one, and which the Humanists have not considered. The socialization of the economy in response to this problem, presented by some Humanists, will serve to mask the social figures, but will end up indebting the country to levels impossible to sustain, and thus to the real failure of the policy carried out.
And when the FINAL SOLUTION was raised to stop everything that was not essential to the country, no one began to think about what was essential and that it was not, it was only defined that this essentiality was defined without taking into account that small and medium-sized enterprises, the self-employed and micro-enterprises are 85% of the country’s economy , that certain sectors such as tourism, the construction sector, textiles, footwear or the automobile itself are more than 90% of the country’s economy, and all of that, overnight, someone defined it as non-essential. If 90% of our existence is considered non-essential, then who is leading our future?
The government has acted as the captain of a ship that in the midst of a storm decides to stop the engines and lock the crew in their cabins, as well as all the gates of the ship and wait for subside the storm, only by attending to possible water entrances inside the compartments; any sailor knows that a ship in such circumstances has a high probability of ending up at the bottom of the sea. You have to face crises and not just defend yourself against them. The problem, possibly, is that none of those who make decisions have been trained in strategy in the face of crisis models, hence that short-term vision that has led us to end the work and effort of our generation and previous generations of the last 50 years of economics.