When I began this review of the situation of pandemic crisis and its effects on the economy, it did not have in my mind to incorporate this continent into global analysis, but it would not be ethical or moral to forget the cradle of Civilization.
Talking about COVID-19 and Africa is like talking about a chicken broth that you incorporate another hen bone into to give the broth a better taste. If there is a continent that will not perceive, significantly, directly the impact of the disease will be Africa.
Someone could cross me out of a lot of things, but the truth has to be told rationally and harshly. A continent that is in the Agricultural Age, that is, that its industrialization, is hardly an anecdote; a continent attacked by the toughest diseases on the planet such as Ebola, malaria, yellow fever, HIV (there are areas where 70% of the population is affected), tuberculosis, and a host of pandemics that are the day-to-day life in African society; a continent that lowers the average lifespan of human beings by more than 20 years; a continent that wakes up every day with armed conflicts that many are unable to do or explain why they started; a continent ravaged by the West during the twentieth century, and topped by China and Arab countries in all that we have been in the 21st century; a continent with this scenario, talking about the COVID-19 is like talking to a pilot flying without engines and with damaged wings that the front landing gear has a flat tire.
Analyzing Africa and the effects of the pandemic is to analyze mainly the economic effects of the West and Asia and subsequently pass them on to that continent. The shift from an Industrial Age to an era of Services, where oil is no longer indispensable, and as has been seen in recent weeks, it even has negative prices, makes countries like Nigeria, Niger, Angola, etc., that its economic base, its way of paying off debts to China, Iran or Saudi Arabia become a real problem of viability.
These countries also have significant population concentrations, which will punish them more aggressively, their inability to order their societies and organize control guidelines will make the pandemic integrated within society and become another of the normal mortality elements in societies accustomed to these types of situations , but their economies already resentful of the commodity crisis will be the real Achilles heel for the future of these countries.
The Maghreb, still mired in the chaos of the Arab Spring, with conflicts in most countries is far from the problems of the pandemic, with the exception of Morocco and Egypt, tourism centres that have been rapidly infected by this cause. The emerging economies of some of these countries, and oil-based economies, will encounter a serious economic problem, although, in the case of the African continent, curiously, it can serve to reduce military conflicts in countries such as Libya, by not having the capacity to finance such conflicts, and to cease to be of interest to third parties involved.
A lot has been discussed about Africa’s future, talking about COVID-19 represents nothing more than formalism in the face of the serious problems facing the continent. The destruction, or transformation of Western economies, the shift in interest in commodities and the lack of investment capacity of these economies, will cause African countries to face a process of recovery from the pandemic difficult to plan now.
Africa faces a process of estrangement from the rest of the global societies even more serious than it has been to date. Their lack of transformation, adaptation and evolution in the past will cause the gap with the rest of the world to widen. The inability to follow the processes of social transformation that the 21st century will require, of rules of coexistence that will even struggle with all the West; on the African continent is going to be absolutely unworkable without a third-party sponsorship.
Here, in the godparents that are determined, is the real answer to the future of the continent. Africa came out of colonialism in the mid-20th century, but under socio-political structures that were not consulted on them, which is why their potential was immediately diluted and became the whim and will of the Greats.
Unfortunately, Africa does not currently have the capacity to evolve without this sponsorship, but with low economic interest for the most evolved countries, the countries that were colonies are contingent on the discouraged exploitation of China or Arab countries. They should seek with their former colonial godparents a peer agreement, in order to be able to evaluate a planned evolution towards the new era, capable of reaching the age of majority in order in the future to make rational decisions moved by the interest of their own societies. But of the Big Three only China is moderately interested in its exploitation, and less and less, with which Africa is facing a major dark period.
If the 21st century has been defined as the century of viruses, the African continent, the cradle of human civilization, possibly faces and if not remedied, a challenge of human survival that will be the mirror of the future of the species. Africa may be the cradle and also the tomb of the human species but are sought diplomatic formulas of partnership between European countries and African countries, since while it has always been the economic interests that have moved the former, now, the problems of old societies of the former, and extremely young societies of the latter can cause other synergistic elements to be identified that help both continents to collaborate in a development where The Great Three will find no interest.
Today it is difficult to identify the future of Africa, and its way out of the changes that the pandemic is generating in the rest of the planet, but one thing is clear, Africa will not be so punished by the pandemic and yes, on the contrary, by the global changes that it will bring about in the rest of the world. The cradle of civilization must be protected, otherwise our future will be hopelessly doomed.